Can’t Get No Worse
These are trying times to be fans of the New York Mets. But there’s no need to despair. It’s time to have faith.
We’ve been called every name in the book by some very prominent baseball figures. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic politely asked us to “calm” our “shriek” and “shrillness” “down” this past offseason. Bleacher Report determined last winter that Mets Twitter was the second saddest fanbase in American sports. David Lennon of Newsday called the fan base “masochistic” just last week. Our own general manager referred to us as “Panic City”, in a year that ended with a pennant win.
It seems that we have ourselves a bit of a reputation, but is it a fair one? I’m not sure. I personally think we should be issued little Mets-themed stress balls every month for what this team puts us through. The most jaded, skeptical group of fans have been through enough turmoil and heartache while rooting for this team for their half-empty viewpoints to be justified. But these are the folks who are just waiting for things to go wrong and declare the season over in the second week of June. You’ve seen them. You may even know some of them.
We are all in this together, but that group seems to have a lot more company these days. That could simply be a product of this new-age of sports, with how the games and it’s vital information are being disseminated faster than you could think of the questions. We have so much access to the game now, as well as the instant gratification/temperature gauge of social media.
With the amount of importance that now placed on every single pitch, baseball season is starting to feel like a really long football season. When there are only sixteen games to play, sure, every game means a lot. But when there’s 162, there’s room for error and improvement; peaks and valleys; ebbs and flows. An April win counts as much as a September win. But you and your heart need to not stress out so much to see those late season wins.
Each one of us made the conscious decision to root for the Mets. Even if we were born into the fandom, we had every opportunity to run for the hills.But when the team went from 1991 to 1997 without a winning season, low-lighted by the demise of Doc Gooden, the disaster that was Generation K, and the never-ending nightmare of Bobby Bonilla (times two), we stuck around. The reward was Robin Ventura’s grand-slam single, the magic of 2006, or that 2015 run that (just when you thought you were out) pulled us back in.
After all of the disdain for management and ownership, the frustrating manner in which this team plays, and the ongoing struggle to not give up on the overwhelming avalanche of awful seasons, we’re still here.
It’s a long season and there’s plenty of time for this 2018 incarnation of our Metsies to galvanize. The 1973 Mets were in last place on August 30, and ended up winning the division over the Cubs, falling just one game short of a championship against the Hall-of-Famer packed Oakland Athletics. Fangraphs has us at a 22.0 percent chance at the postseason, which is not the same number as 0.0.
There’s a lot of talent on this team. It may not be the ideal group of players and things will hardly ever play out as Sandy & Co. expect or how we want them to, but there’s reason to believe in this team.
The easiest place to look for a beam of sunshine is Mr. Guy Smiley himself (sorry if the Sesame Street reference went over some folks’ heads, my age is showing), Brandon Nimmo. Since being selected in the first-round of the 2011 MLB Draft out of Cheyenne, Wyoming, Nimmo has been a spark plug. A bit enigmatic at times, but a plate-setter nonetheless. It appears that now he’s added another dimension to his game besides getting on base at a decent clip; he’s added some power to his repertoire.
Throughout his time in the minors (.280/.388/.418 in 565 games from 2011 to 2017) the 27-year-old only hit a total of 40 home runs. Nimmo always had an extra-base hit wrinkle to his game, as evidenced by his 112 doubles and 40 triples in MiLB, but only now is the whole package coming together.
In 179 plate appearances with the Mets this season, Nimmo already has eight home runs (already surpassing his ZiPS projection for the season), seven doubles, and five triples.
As I write this, among hitters with over 100 at-bats, Nimmo currently ranks seventh in all of MLB with his .414 weighted on base average and is sixth in weighted runs created plus with 168. Welcome to Brandon Nimmo’s breakout party.
The New York Mets’ other 25-year-old former first-round pick is Michael Conforto. He had the All-Star season the Mets dreamed of in 2017, exploding for 27 home runs and a gaudy 146 OPS+, in which he played less than two-thirds of the year before his torn anterior capsule injury. After team officials pegged his targeted return date as “May-ish”, he returned this season on April 5 to help ruin the Nationals’ home opener with a home run. But after that tater, Conforto hit just .222/.390/.317 in April, leading some to believe that the team may have allowed him to return to the team much too quickly. His May was pretty good with .256/.337/.444 with a 119 wRC+, and not a moment too soon.
Amed Rosario has simply been a joy to watch. The progress he’s made, just this past month, has been nothing short of remarkable. And don’t forget, he’s only 22 years old. He started out awfully hot for this planned first full season in the major leagues. Over his first nine games, he hit .290/.313/.419 with six runs batted in, two doubles, and a lighting-fast triple at home versus Philadelphia on April 4. After that nice little stretch, Rosario cooled off considerably. From April 11 through the end of the month, he hit just .204 with a .529 OPS. Some fans, as we tend to do, were calling for Rosey to spend some time in the minors. Then May arrived, when he hit .279 with a .725 OPS with 10runs batted in, four doubles, three home runs, and a half-dozen sparkling plays at shortstop.
Between these three players alone, there is more than enough reason to believe that this team can come together and stay competitive in an extremely tough division.
Do the Mets need Jay Bruce to snap out of his funk? Of course, they do. If he is still playing in pain due to plantar fasciitis, then sit him down. Once he’s healthy and regains his stroke, he will help out this team’s cause immensely. Plantar fasciitis can disappear, with rest.
By the time Yoenis Cespedes returns…well, he’s returned from the DL before as a Met. Numerous times in fact. He only played 57 games for the Mets in 2015, and made the impact that he did. The Mets’ great run late in 2016 began when Asdrubal Cabrera and Cespedes returned from their disabled list stints. Adding him to the mix again (this time without giving up Michael Fulmer in return) should give this team quite a bit more potency.
And if guys like Nimmo, Conforto, Rosario, and Asdrubal Cabrera can stay on their steady incline, we very well could have a powerhouse on our hands.
Am I being optimistic? Yup. Because I haven’t even gotten to the pitching.
There’s Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. deGrom is fourth in baseball with his 3.0 wins above replacement this season, second in fielding independent pitching (1.94), and second in earned-run average (1.49).
Syndergaard, while not pitching as impressively as we (or he) expected him to, has still been an absolute force for the New York Mets this season. He’s expected to return on Sunday to face the Yankees.
Like deGrom, the large, flamethrowing right-hander sits among the upper crust of all starting pitchers in the majors.
His 1.9 WAR ranks twelfth in baseball, his 2.56 FIP is sixth, and his 3.06 ERA, while likely not being up to his standards, is still pretty darn good.
If we’ve learned anything about Noah Syndergaard since he made his debut in 2015, it’s that he holds himself to an extremely high standard. He likely wants to get back out there and continuously get better as much as we all do.
As inconsistent as Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz have been so far this year, they’ve slowly-but-surely been making headway. Just over the last week, both hurlers have made considerable strides in that regard.
Matz began his year is very rough fashion. For the month of April, the 27-year-old lefty owned a 4.98 earned-run average and only 21.2 innings pitched in five starts. Things were clearly not going his way.
After being tattooed for seven runs (three earned) in 3.1 innings on April 25, Mets skipper Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland instructed Matz to simply “breathe” after each at-bat. If things didn’t go to plan with the last hitter, adapt, adjust, and move past it.
That little pep talk seemed to have some immediate and dramatic effects on the beleaguered left-hander.
Over the course of May, Matz pitched to a 2.25 earned-run average with fifteen strikeouts in 24 innings. Apparently, the young man is finding his way. And what pleasant turn of events it was.
In Sunday’s loss to the Cubs, Matz pitched wonderfully, throwing seven strong innings, allowing two earned runs in his final frame on five total base hits, striking out seven and walking two. If he can continue to improve with every outing, a power-lefty coming after two power-righties in the Mets rotation could conceivably keep opposing hitters in fits.
Zack Wheeler had been just as inconsistent as Matz, but his timeline for disaster took a different route. Over his last three starts, he’s also made significant improvements.
Wheeler, 28, had a respectable April, pitching to a 4.09 earned-run average with a 21-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If not for an ugly start versus the Cardinals on April 24 (4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER), he could have been riding even higher heading into May.
Unfortunately, the cookie just didn’t crumble that way for the Georgia native. His outing on May 4 against the Rockies was horrific. Over six innings of work, Wheeler allowed eight earned runs on ten hits, causing his ERA to balloon to 5.79.
Since then, it hasn’t been all peaches and cream for Zack Wheeler, but he is showing signs of improvement. His walks are up, which is uncharacteristic for him, but he was able to go six innings in four of his five starts in May.
In Wednesday’s soul-crushing loss to the Orioles, Wheeler had arguably his most dominant outing since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2017.
He threw seven outstanding innings, giving up only three hits and no runs, lowering his earned-run average to 4.57. Baby steps, folks.
And then, of course, there’s Jason Vargas. What a wild few months he’s had. After scoring a decent contract (two years, $16 million) from the Mets in February, he was having himself a fine spring before breaking the hamate bone in his non-throwing hand a week before Opening Day, throwing his spring into flux.
Another possible victim of returning to action too early, Vargas was hammered in his first three starts for nineteen earned runs in 12.1 innings of work. After throwing five scoreless innings against the Marlins on May 21, he went out five days later and threw another stinker (three innings, five earned runs).
His outing on May 30 in Atlanta was more of what the organization and the fans were all hoping for out of the 35-year-old left-hander. Over five innings of work against the top offensive team in the National League, Vargas allowed only two hits, striking out two and walking one.
Mickey Callaway removed him after just 65 pitches but certainly had the future in mind when making such an on-the-surface baffling decision. Once again, you’ve got to learn to crawl before you learn to walk.
A ballplayer’s preparation is key to their success. Getting hurt in Spring Training and kinda, sorta being rushed back into the floundering back-end of the Mets rotation threw that schedule off a bit.
In his losing effort on Tuesday night versus Baltimore, Vargas had another encouraging outing. He only went five innings after Mickey Callaway lifted him for a pinch-hitter in the sixth, but only allowed two runs on five hits, retiring 15-of-16 batters at one point.
Now that he’s looking like he’s found a groove, we should begin to see more and more quality, efficient outings out of the veteran southpaw. If all of the cards fall right for the Mets rotation, it could develop into even more of a strength.
This starting staff has a combined earned-run average of 3.90 with a 1.301 WHIP, 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, a 3.42 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 333 strikeouts, good for fourth-best in the National League.
We’re quite a ways off, but having to whittle this staff into a postseason rotation schedule could turn into a delightful chore if everyone keeps improving in modest increments. Patience is a virtue, especially when dealing with ecosystems as fragile as athletes’ psyches.
Speaking of which, let’s address the Rubik’s cube that has been the New York Mets’ relief corps.
The guys who the team was counting on to be key components in their bullpen in various roles have been shockingly bad and the guys who were new to relieving have been outstanding.
Let’s begin with Jerry Blevins. The lefty-specialist has been dominant throughout his career versus left-handers. His swooping curve and deceptively sharp fastball got him by for a very long time.
His .216 batting average against and 5.18 strikeout-to-walk ratio give us a pretty good idea of how dominant he’s been as a LOOGY throughout his eight-year MLB career.
This year has been a bit of a mystery for the 34-year-old lefty. Left-handed batters are hitting a staggering .324 against him and his control has been more of an issue that it’s ever been for him (1.67 strikeouts-to-walks).
Part of the reason for this could be the fact that he’s cut down on throwing his fastball (45.7 percent in 2017 and 52.1 percent in 2018 compared to 62.6 percent in 2016) in favor of his changeup (up to 8.4 percent this season from 4.2 in 2017) and has dropped his curveball usage by over ten percent (50.1 last year; 39.5 this year).
This has clearly resulted in some ineffectiveness this season, but Blevins is a proven stud and this isn’t his first rodeo.
Blevins spoke about his frustrations to the New York Daily News: “It’s beyond, I can’t say frustration, it’s more anger. It’s not for lack of effort, it’s not for lack of care…I am trying to be a professional right now.”
That instinct to fight back and improve is called moxie, folks. And Jerry Blevins has boatloads of it. Another positive, albeit in the face of a large, menacing negative. Let’s keep this thing moving.
Clearly, AJ Ramos will need to get better once he returns from the disabled list. He is a vital cog in this group. Same goes for the healthy but still ineffective Hansel Robles. If he can’t improve, and quickly, he could be out of a job.
Luckily for the Mets, they’ve been able to lean on a handful of solid options out of the ‘pen. One has been there before. That’s Jeurys Familia.
He may not be impermeable, but Familia has been as close to a shut-down, close-it-out guy as a pitcher can probably get.
Through 25 appearances this season (26 innings), the 28-year-old right-hander has a 2.25 earned-run average, a 169 ERA+, 14 saves, 10.6 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings, and a 3.67 K/BB ratio.
He’s had a few hiccups, but overall, Familia has been outstanding, and for all intents and purposes, doesn’t give us many reasons to believe that he’s going to significantly falter any time soon.
The other catalysts of this Mets bullpen weren’t even pegged as relievers heading into Spring Training. There was always the possibility that with the Mets deep starting pitching situation that Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo would end up in the bullpen.
Things couldn’t have worked out much better. In a combined 71.4 innings in relief, Lugo and Gsellman have a 2.98 earned-run average, 72 strikeouts, and have issues just 23 bases-on-balls.
These two have been stalwarts for this group and, even though Lugo made a spot start on Thursday night (to excellent results, no less) and will likely be the first option to do so moving forward, the combination of these two effective righties are sure to give the Mets relievers some added muscle in tight spots.
There are a ton of reasons to have doubts about this team. But what would we be as Mets fans if we didn’t believe? Have a little faith. We’ve always heard about the effects that a raucous fan base can have on a team.
If we can get behind this team, quit the infighting, and all start pulling in the same direction, as far-fetched as it may seem, the ripple-effect could, over time, end up reaching the home clubhouse at Citi Field and giving them that extra boost.
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